The need for the MOD to set out the future strategic context was articulated in the 1998 Strategic Defence Review. To meet that requirement, the Strategic Trends Programme was started in 2001 and the first edition of Global Strategic Trends (GST) was published in 2003. Subsequently, GST, along with the Future Operating Environment have been key elements of the MOD’s contribution to both the National Security Strategy and the Strategic Defence and Security Review – and we expect them to play similar roles in the future.
GST is the first step in a series of MOD long-term planning activities. By providing a global context, further work will then be able to examine its implications and develop policy and capability options to meet the resulting challenges. While GST is produced principally for MOD it has utility for others involved in long-term planning. The program has benefited from considerable engagement with those outside MOD – from academia, business and government both domestically and internationally. In so doing, we have deliberately attempted to avoid a single, subjective perspective.
The presentation will discuss the starting point for the next version of GST and the way trends are being identified. It will discuss some of the analysing techniques used and the process upon which the next version of GST is being produced.
Paul currently works for the Development Concepts and Doctrine Centre as the Technology lead for the strategic trends program. He received aMaster of Physics degree from the University of Manchester in 2000. After graduating he worked in the finance industry where he was promoted to the head of the offer and completions department within Alliance and Leicester. In 2003 Paul decided to change career and began working for the Defence Ordnance Safety Group where he worked as a numerical modeller and explosive effects scientist. In 2009 Paul studied for a Masters Degree in Explosive Ordnance Engineering at the Defence Academy. After graduation Paul decided to stay at the Defence Academy where he now works within the Development Concepts and Doctrine Centre.