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Date/Time Organisation & Location Description
22/11/2011 -

1700H for 1730H
Railway Interest Group

London Underground, 55 Broadway, London SW1H 0BD
Decision Making from Data: Causes and Uncertainty

This talk describes a case study in the use of data and probabilistic modelling for decision making and the wider applications of the principles to other problems in Systems Engineering.

The case study, an on-going collaboration between Queen Mary University of London and RSSB, concerns the safety of rail passengers using stations. RSSB co-ordinates the Rail Industry's collection of passenger incident data and this data is used to track the risk of different categories of accidents. However, rather than 'what is the current risk?' what if we want to know 'How can the risk be reduced?'. For this, we need to model causally: how far would the risk be reduced by feasible safety improvements. We show that incident data alone is not sufficient for this: we need to integrate other sources of data and use probabilistic modelling to approximate complex relationships.


Title Author Doc Type Doc Date File Type View
Decision Making from Data: Causes and Uncertainty  Bruce Elliott  Flyer  20/07/2011  pdf   Open 
Decision Making from Data: Causes and Uncertainty  William Marsh  Presentation  02/12/2011  pdf   Open